In this post, I’m going to explain why the Club Penguin Island beta could not possibly have been randomised. In fact, (as of July 2013 – bare in mind we’re know in 2016, almost 2017) there’s less than a 0.0000055% chance of it not being random. Yes, I didn’t make that up. Let me explain.
Twitter has been a great source for finding out information about Club Penguin Island. At the top of my head, I can think of 11 people in the Twitter who got the beta email and the TestFlight email. Remember, this is just me trying to remember.
- Nachoz Rules
Alright, so as of July 2013, over 200 million accounts have been registered on Club Penguin. Spike Hike has said in the past that the vast majority of players are from the United States which, along with Canada, is where you have to be to be able to test the game, though others who aren’t from these countries got the game using other methods. I’m not going to deduct from 200 million because more accounts would have been created over the course of three years.
Only 2000 people got the chance to beta test in the closed beta. At least 11 of those are from our community…out of over 200 million. The chance of that happening is 0.0000055%, meaning that it’s EXTREMELY unlikely. However, if that’s not enough for you, let’s investigate a bit more into this matter. I want to make clear that I don’t think anyone should have their beta-testing powers removed but this is interesting.
It’s interesting to note that a few (nowhere near all) are in contact with Megg through direct messages on Twitter. Some have even interviewed her and others have received exclusives from her for their blog. I doubt that this is a coincidence…
Anyway, let’s look at this realistically. If the TestFlight email was sent out randomly, who’s saying that a bunch of bots received it? That might suggest that the beta interest email was random but again the chances of so many players in the community receiving it is just so low that it’s almost impossible to think that the beta selection was not random.
On the topic of fairness, some players have exploited the system to be able to test the game when they didn’t even receive the interest email and they don’t even live in Northern America. That’s really fair, isn’t it Disney? Yes, I’m still mad over the beta selection.